D-Risk Investing Podcast

Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL) - Episode 144 - Nov 12, 2025

Is the future of finance on sale, or is this the sound of a stablecoin giant crashing back to earth? Circle Internet Group ($CRCL) is the digital plumbing the market is betting on, yet the chart is flashing deep technical damage, and our free cash flow model screams "significantly overvalued." As the longest-ever government shutdown blinds the Fed and fuels market uncertainty, speculative money in the options pit is positioned overwhelmingly for a drop. We break down what the market's really signaling and what's next for investors navigating this conflicted stock.

The Global Brief - Episode 143 - Nov 11, 2025

Navigating the "data fog" of a prolonged government shutdown, global markets are latching onto one powerful narrative: aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. This dovish speculation, supercharged by a new Fed Governor calling for a 50-basis-point cut, is driving massive cross-asset divergence. While Asian equities ease from highs, a surging gold price above $4,100 signals a clear flight to safety and a vote against the U.S. dollar. The key question for investors remains: is the market correctly sniffing out a major policy pivot, or is it getting ahead of itself while flying blind? We break down the technicals and central bank calendar for today's crucial clues.

CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) - Episode 142 - Nov 11, 2025

CoreWeave is at the epicenter of the AI boom, boasting a staggering $55 billion backlog fueled by new deals with giants like Meta and OpenAI. Yet, the stock just suffered a brutal sell-off after execution stumbles led to a lower revenue forecast. Is the market right to punish this high-growth darling for one stumble, or is this short-term pain masking a powerful long-term gain? With a significant short interest facing off against optimistic options traders, we break down what the technical damage is really signaling, and what’s next for investors.

Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) - Episode 141 - Nov 11, 2025

Is the Rocket Lab rally running on fumes, or is it a rocket-fueled tear? The space stock delivered a stunning 48% year-over-year revenue beat and a massive $1.1 billion backlog, but the delay of its pivotal Neutron rocket to 2026 caused market whiplash. With 12.95% of the float sold short and a perfectly neutral options market split, the $52 stock is now a battleground between stellar execution and a valuation stretched on future promises. We break down what the market’s powerful after-hours reversal is really signaling—and what’s next for investors.

The Global Brief - Episode 140 - Nov 10, 2025

The global market is caught in a profound contradiction: US consumer sentiment has plummeted to near-record lows amid the longest government shutdown in history, yet futures are rallying sharply across the board. The Treasury Secretary warns of fourth-quarter growth being cut in half, but investors are looking straight through the grim headlines, aggressively pricing in a 65% probability of a December Fed rate cut. This "bad news is good news" dynamic is driving a surge in gold to a record $4,089 and keeping the Vix contained. Tune in as we break down how the global liquidity trade is overpowering the economic data fog, and reveal the specific Fed signals and critical bond auctions that will determine if the market's high-stakes gamble pays off.

MP Materials Corp. (MP) - Episode 139 - Nov 10, 2025

MP Materials (MP) just defied expectations with a stellar earnings beat and a massive technical rally, yet our analysis shows its stock is trading at a colossal premium to its fundamental $4.20 fair value. This rare earth miner is a vital piece of US national strategy, backed by zero 'Sell' ratings, but is currently burning cash with widening losses. Is this the definitive patriotic play for supply chain sovereignty, or a speculative short-squeeze ignoring financial gravity? We break down what the market’s really signaling—and what’s next for investors.

SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG) - Episode 138 - Nov 10, 2025

SolarEdge just blew past earnings expectations, staging a dramatic stock comeback, yet zero Wall Street analysts rate it a Buy. The market is caught in an electric tug-of-war between stellar technical momentum and deep-seated fundamental skepticism, highlighted by massive short interest vs. bullish options activity. Is this a genuine recovery fueled by strong results and demand, or a classic short squeeze on an overvalued solar stock? The fate of the rally hinges on this conflict. We break down what the market’s really signaling, and what’s next for investors.

The Global Brief - Episode 137 - Nov 7, 2025

🔥 A major geopolitical thaw just hit a market in a macroeconomic deep freeze, and the fear is winning! Beijing removed key trade tariffs in a massive de-escalation that should send global stocks soaring. Instead, the VIX is surging above 20, U.S. futures are flat, and the Dollar Index is struggling, proving the market is more focused on domestic chaos. We break down the profound cognitive dissonance: from a hesitant Asian rally and a distracted Europe to a US fixed-income market that is completely frozen. With dueling jobs data and a six-week government shutdown fueling recession fears, today’s official Nonfarm Payrolls report becomes the critical tie-breaker. Will the data finally validate the growing pessimism, or will it force the market to price in the global good news? Tune in for the breakdown of this unprecedented stalemate.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) - Episode 136 - Nov 7, 2025

📢 Is the AI Boom about to claim its first victim, or is yesterday's 7% semiconductor crash the buying opportunity of a lifetime? We're diving into Micron Technology (MU), the memory chip giant whose stellar fundamentals and $289 fair value are now battling the market's worst fears. Despite analyst optimism and an undeniable uptrend, the stock was brutally hammered by sector-wide panic, leading to a massive conflict that has short-term traders bracing for turbulence. Can the company's powerful, AI-driven narrative overcome the jitters from today's packed economic calendar? Tune into D-Risk to discover our Cautiously Bullish Outlook and the crucial invalidation level that will tell us if the dip-buyers were brilliant or just burned.

QuantumScape Corporation (QS) - Episode 135 - Nov 7, 2025

🔋 The solid-state battery revolution is here, but are insiders selling the stock into a buying frenzy? D-Risk is putting QuantumScape (QS) under the microscope, right after they hit a major product milestone that should send shares soaring. Instead, the stock took a hit, driven by a wave of over $41 million in insider sales and deep skepticism from Wall Street analysts. We break down this classic conflict: dazzling technological promise versus c-suite caution, set against a highly-charged options market betting on a short-term pop. Will the bulls defend the critical $17.00 level, or will the short-sellers, who have nearly 10% of the float, break the floor and confirm a deeper correction? Tune in for our Neutral with a Bearish Bias verdict and the crucial invalidation level that will dictate where this stock heads next.