D-Risk Investing Podcast

The Global Brief - Episode 134 - Nov 6, 2025

📈 Welcome to D-Risk! In today's episode we tackle the "Great Macro Divergence" paralyzing the market! Strong U.S. services data is fighting against a record government shutdown and soaring consumer loan defaults, leaving the 10-year Treasury and the Dollar trapped in a fierce tug-of-war. Meanwhile, policy is fractured globally, from the BoJ's internal debate on hiking to the Bank of England's razor-thin 5-4 vote on holding rates. Gold and the Vix are whipsawing, pricing in radical confusion. Tune in as we track today's critical jobs data and a parade of Fed and ECB speakers searching for a tie-breaker, and find out whether the robust tech economy or the struggling consumer will win the directionless battle.

Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) - Episode 133 - Nov 6, 2025

🦉 Duolingo (DUOL) just posted a blockbuster quarter, revenue up 41% and paid subscribers soaring, so why did the stock just collapse over 21% in pre-market trading? It's a classic case of Wall Street punishing a company for planning for the future. We confront the fundamental contradiction: a flawlessly executing company with a $400+ fair value now facing a catastrophic technical breakdown and heavy short-seller positioning. Tune in to understand the market's biggest fear and discover the critical $215 invalidation level that will signal whether this massive discount is a generational opportunity or a falling knife.

Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) - Episode 132 - Nov 6, 2025

📰 D-Risk: Is a stock a lottery ticket with a great story, or a calculated investment? In this episode, we dive into the semiconductor giant Marvell Technology (MRVL), which just rocketed past the $100 mark on a tantalizing but unconfirmed SoftBank/Arm merger rumor. We confront the explosive market momentum and bullish options trading against the cold reality of its $64 fair value and a critical mixed volume signal. Will the irresistible narrative continue to trump fundamentals? Tune in to uncover the exact invalidation level that will determine if the magic lasts, or if the stock is due for a sudden, brutal correction.

The Global Brief - Episode 131 - Nov 5, 2025

📰 Policy Paralysis: Why the Market is Flying Blind and What Happens Next. 📰 The global market is smothered in a "thick fog of uncertainty," with the Vix elevated above 19 and fear holding fast, as a 36-day U.S. government shutdown creates a paralyzing data vacuum. From Asia to Europe, policymakers are sending conflicting signals, forcing traders to ignore bullish technical charts in favor of ugly fundamental realities, like a collapsing Chinese freight market and a bearish Death Cross in crude oil. Even the U.S. dollar is caught in a tug-of-war between its safe-haven status and the drag of domestic dysfunction. We break down the cross-currents in fixed income and commodities and pinpoint the private data reports—including the critical ISM Services PMI—that are now king, and which could trigger an outsized market reaction today. Tune in to understand the risks and where to position yourself when no one can see the road ahead.

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) - Episode 130 - Nov 5, 2025

📉 Which Story Do You Trust: The Blockbuster Fundamentals or the Bearish Chart? 📈 On this episode of D-Risk, we dive deep into pharmaceutical titan Novo Nordisk, a company fundamentally firing on all cylinders with a 12% sales surge from its blockbuster drugs and a massive $10 billion-plus M&A push to dominate the weight-loss market. Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish, and our valuation suggests the stock is significantly undervalued. But here's the conflict: the stock chart is a disaster, flashing dark red with long-term trend, volume, and momentum indicators pointing sharply down. The question isn't whether the company is healthy, but whether its phenomenal success can finally stop the relentless selling pressure and rewrite a truly ugly technical narrative. Tune in to get our full strategic outlook and find out where we see the critical lines in the sand.

Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) - Episode 129 - Nov 5, 2025

💥 Is a Blockbuster Earnings Report Enough to Beat the Bears? 💥 On this episode of D-Risk, we're squeezing the data on insurance disruptor Lemonade ($LMND). They just delivered a stellar quarter, crushing revenue and raising guidance—the kind of news that should send a stock soaring. But with Wall Street analysts still lukewarm and a massive 28% of the company's float sold short, the sentiment is overwhelmingly skeptical. We dive into the contradictory technical signals and options market battle lines to determine if this fundamental catalyst is a genuine turning point for a higher valuation or just a short-term sugar rush before a crash. Press play to find out the full strategic outlook!

The Global Brief - Episode 128 - Nov 4, 2025

The global market is locked in a fierce tug-of-war between clear evidence of a US economic slowdown, pushing for aggressive rate cuts, and central banks from Tokyo to London battling their own complex inflation fights. With Nasdaq futures plunging, the VIX spiking above 19, and the dollar paradoxically holding firm at three-month highs, a fundamental repricing of global growth is underway. We analyze alarming new recession signals, including a 50% profit cut from a major Japanese shipper and mass job cut plans from German corporations, reinforcing fears that a Eurozone contraction is deepening. Tune in as we decode this policy deadlock and preview today’s critical JOLTS Job Openings report and key Fedspeak, which traders will scour for any hint of direction in this deeply uncertain environment.

Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) - Episode 127 - Nov 4, 2025

Is it possible to report blockbuster earnings and still have the market treat you like a one-hit wonder? Spotify just blew away Wall Street's expectations with spectacular user growth and record profits, yet its stock is trading as if the music has stopped. We dive deep into this fascinating conflict: analysts love the fundamentals, suggesting a fair value well above the current price, but the chart is technically broken with money flowing out and a distinctly bearish sentiment in the options market. In an unstable macro environment, we analyze why the market is shrugging off great news and what that means for your portfolio. Tune in to find out the critical price levels for the bulls to fight back and why the stock's refusal to rally is the biggest red flag of all.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) - Episode 126 - Nov 3, 2025

Is Meta Platforms (META) building a bridge to the future or simply walking the plank? Despite being a Wall Street darling with an overwhelming number of "Buy" ratings and a strong fundamental valuation, the stock just took a massive hit, leaving its price chart looking like a crime scene. As a risk-off market wakes up to the gloom, we dive deep into the ultimate conflict: Who is right—the calm analysts who see a growth engine, or the panicked sellers whose volume confirms institutional exit? We unpack the split crowd sentiment, reveal the unanimous technical breakdown, and set the critical price levels that will determine if this is a classic "buy-the-dip" opportunity or if it's finally time to unfriend Meta from your portfolio.

The Global Brief - Episode 125 - Nov 3, 2025

The Fed just injected nearly $30 billion into the U.S. banking system—its largest liquidity operation since 2020—yet equity futures are rallying. This episode dives into the market's core disconnect: bullish technicals are clashing with signs of deep systemic stress. With a government shutdown creating a critical "data vacuum," is this a genuine risk-on rally or a fragile, liquidity-fueled head fake? We break down the emergency Fed ops, Germany's economic contraction, Japan's hawkish pivot, and the critical U.S. PMI data that traders are watching to navigate a market that's flying blind.